Evidence Shows That Beliefs in Conspiracy Theories Has Not Increased Over Time

According to research, belief in conspiracy theories has not been increasing, which is contrary to what many people, including scholars, journalists, and policymakers seem to think. Many of them agree with prevailing opinion that belief in conspiracy theories is increasing. While they believe this, there is surprisingly no evidence, such as research, shown to support this claim. So, I decided to take a look at the literature on conspiracy theories myself and was surprised to learn that the belief that conspiracy theories are now more prevalent is basically a myth.

A large part of this conspiracy theory myth is that beliefs in conspiracy theories are increasing as well as the negative side effects of conspiracy theories. If it were true this would be very bad for society. But according to a study published in PLOS One, which examined beliefs in conspiracy theories over time, beliefs in conspiracy theories hasn't changed much. So, what's going on? To answer that question let's take a look at this research study.

The Research

The researchers use time series data from several countries that include a variety of conspiracy theory beliefs and other indicators of conspiracism. The research paper is divided into four separate studies with each investigating different aspects of beliefs in conspiracy theories.

The first study researches change over time in the proportion of Americans believing 46 individual conspiracy theories and four pieces of misinformation. The time spans for this study stretch from seven months to 55 years. Study 2 looks at beliefs in six different conspiracy theories across six European countries from 2016 to 2018. Study 3 moves away from looking at beliefs in conspiracy theories toward examining changes in perceptions about which social and political groups are conspiring. The final study analyzes trends in generalized conspiracy thinking from 2012 to 2021.

Conspiracy Theories in America

Before even going into detail about their findings, the researchers explain that in terms of each study they conducted they "fail[ed] to observe compelling evidence that either specific conspiracy theory beliefs or general forms of conspiracism have increased." In particular, for the first study, the researchers found that only seven out of 46 conspiracy theories had a significant increase in the number of believers of the respective conspiracy theory. For 22 of the conspiracy theories there was no significant change and for 17 of the conspiracy theories there were significant decreases. The researchers even found that the conspiracy theories that have been attracting the most concern (those regarding COVID-19, QAnon, and vaccines) seem to not be increasing in popularity.

Conspiracy Theories in Europe

The second study, which examined conspiracy theories in Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Poland, Portugal, and Sweden, found a similar result. In all these countries, belief in conspiracy theories significantly increased in only one case, for holocaust deniers in Sweden with an increase from 1% to 3%. However, in seven of the conspiracy theory cases the researchers found significant decreases in beliefs over time, but most conspiracy theory belief cases experienced no significant change. 

The Conspiring of Social and Political Groups

The third study examined which groups are likely to be conspirators according to people who believe in conspiracy theories. Across the nine years analyzed, the researchers found both decreases and increases in the proportion of American adults believing which groups are likely conspirators. Decreases were found for corporations, international organizations, and unions. Increases were found for republicans, the government, foreign governments, freemasons, communists, and democrats. However, the decreases in these beliefs were larger than the increases. This means that the researchers did not observe an average increase in the number of conspirators that people are worried about.

Generalized Conspiracy Thinking

Study four seeks to answer have people become more conspiracy-minded, in general, over time? To answer this question, the researchers analyzed surveys that used a specific scale containing five categories ranging from “strongly disagree” (1) to “strongly agree” (5) and the following four statements:

1. Even though we live in a democracy, a few people will always run things anyway.
2. The people who really “run” the country are not known to the voters.
3. Big events like wars, the recent recession, and the outcomes of elections are controlled by small groups of people who are working in secret against the rest of us.
4. Much of our lives are being controlled by plots hatched in secret places.

After analyzing survey responses from October 2012 - May 2021, the researchers averaged the responses received into a statistically reliable scale to find how conspiracy minded people are. They found that there was an increase in generalized conspiracy thinking between 2012 and 2016, but this increase was substantively small. Overall, from 2012 - 2021 there was no average increase in conspiracy thinking overtime. 

Conclusion

As can be seen from looking at this research, there is a lack of evidence to support the position that beliefs in conspiracy theories are increasing. Instead, something else seems to be going on. It seems like instead of the internet and social media increasing beliefs in conspiracy theories, conspiracy theory posts seem to simply be more prevalent and viral. In fact, the research mentioned in this article explains that the baseline for conspiracy theory beliefs is already high. In other words, although conspiracies aren't increasing, there are still many people that believe in conspiracy theories. Maybe the many people that believe in conspiracy theories social media posts go more viral than other posts. However, to know if this is indeed correct, another research study would need to be completed.

Unless there's another compelling research paper about conspiracy theories that contradicts this research, we can be reasonably sure that there is no evidence pointing to beliefs conspiracy theories being on the rise. Instead, beliefs in conspiracy theories seems to be in many cases remaining the same or even decreasing. It's important to acknowledge this because the conclusion that internet culture is not necessarily leading to an increase in conspiracy theories has implications for social media companies, especially in terms of how they police their platforms.

Written by Wes Cooper

2023-09-29